Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men

Understanding infectious disease dynamics and the effect on prevalence and incidence is crucial for public health policies. Disease incidence and prevalence are typically not observed directly and increasingly are estimated through the synthesis of indirect information from multiple data sources. We demonstrate how an evidence synthesis approach to the estimation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in England and Wales can be extended to infer the underlying HIV incidence. Diverse time series of data can be used to obtain yearly “snapshots” (with associated uncertainty) of the proportion of the population in 4 compartments: not at risk, susceptible, HIV positive but undiagnosed, and diagnosed HIV positive. A multistate model for the infection and diagnosis processes is then formulated by expressing the changes in these proportions by a system of differential equations. By parameterizing incidence in terms of prevalence and contact rates, HIV transmission is further modeled. Use of additional data or prior information on demographics, risk behavior change and contact parameters allows simultaneous estimation of the transition rates, compartment prevalences, contact rates, and transmission probabilities

Discharge After Hip Fracture Surgery by Mobilisation Timing: Secondary Analysis of The UK National Hip Fracture Database

Abstrac

Bridging the data gaps in the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia using multi-parameter evidence synthesis

BACKGROUND: Collecting adequate information on key epidemiological indicators is a prerequisite to informing a public health response to reduce the impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia. Our goal was to overcome the acute data shortage typical of low/middle income countries using statistical modelling to estimate the national HCV prevalence and the distribution over transmission pathways as of the end of 2009. METHODS: Multi-parameter evidence synthesis methods were applied to combine all available relevant data sources - both direct and indirect - that inform the epidemiological parameters of interest. RESULTS: An estimated 454,000 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 392,000 to 535,000) HCV antibody-positive individuals were living in Malaysia in 2009; this represents 2.5% (95% CrI: 2.2-3.0%) of the population aged 15-64 years. Among males of Malay ethnicity, for 77% (95% CrI: 69-85%) the route of probable transmission was active or a previous history of injecting drugs. The corresponding proportions were smaller for male Chinese and Indian/other ethnic groups (40% and 71%, respectively). The estimated prevalence in females of all ethnicities was 1% (95% CrI: 0.6 to 1.4%); 92% (95% CrI: 88 to 95%) of infections were attributable to non-drug injecting routes of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalent number of persons living with HCV infection in Malaysia is estimated to be very high. Low/middle income countries often lack a comprehensive evidence base; however, evidence synthesis methods can assist in filling the data gaps required for the development of effective policy to address the future public health and economic burden due to HCV. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0564-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Discharge after hip fracture surgery by mobilisation timing: secondary analysis of the UK National Hip Fracture Database.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether mobilisation timing was associated with the cumulative incidence of hospital discharge by 30 days after hip fracture surgery, accounting for potential confounders and the competing risk of in-hospital death. METHOD: We examined data for 135,105 patients 60 years or older who underwent surgery for nonpathological first hip fracture between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016 in any hospital in England or Wales. We tested whether the cumulative incidences of discharge differed between those mobilised early (within 36 h of surgery) and those mobilised late, accounting for potential confounders and the competing risk of in-hospital death. RESULTS: A total of 106,722 (79%) of patients first mobilised early. The average rate of discharge was 39.2 (95% CI 38.9-39.5) per 1,000 patient days, varying from 43.1 (95% CI 42.8-43.5) among those who mobilised early to 27.0 (95% CI 26.6-27.5) among those who mobilised late, accounting for the competing risk of death. By 30-day postoperatively, the crude and adjusted odds ratios of discharge were 2.36 (95% CI 2.29-2.43) and 2.08 (95% CI 2.00-2.16), respectively, among those who first mobilised early compared with those who mobilised late, accounting for the competing risk of death. CONCLUSION: Early mobilisation led to a 2-fold increase in the adjusted odds of discharge by 30-day postoperatively. We recommend inclusion of mobilisation within 36 h of surgery as a new UK Best Practice Tariff to help reduce delays to mobilisation currently experienced by one-fifth of patients surgically treated for hip fracture

A Randomized Trial of Intravenous Iron Supplementation and Exercise on Exercise Capacity in Iron-Deficient Nonanemic Patients With CKD

Introduction: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are often iron deficient, even when not anemic. This trial evaluated whether iron supplementation enhances exercise capacity of nonanemic patients with CKD who have iron-deficiency. Methods: Prospective, multicenter double-blind randomized controlled trial of nondialysis patients with CKD and iron-deficiency but without anemia (Hemoglobin [Hb] >110 g/l). Patients were assigned 1:1 to intravenous (IV) iron therapy, or placebo. An 8-week exercise program commenced at week 4. The primary outcome was the mean between-group difference in 6-minute walk test (6MWT) at 4 weeks. Secondary outcomes included 6MWT at 12 weeks, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum ferritin (SF), Hb, renal function, muscle strength, functional capacity, quality of life, and adverse events at baseline, 4 weeks, and at 12 weeks. Mean between-group differences were analyzed using analysis of covariance models. Results: Among 75 randomized patients, mean (SD) age for iron therapy (n = 37) versus placebo (n = 38) was 54 (16) versus 61 (12) years; estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (34 [12] vs. 35 [11] ml/min per 1.73 m2], TSAT (23 [12] vs. 21 [6])%; SF (57 [64] vs. 62 [33]) μg/l; Hb (122.4 [9.2] vs. 127 [13.2] g/l); 6MWT (384 [95] vs. 469 [142] meters) at baseline, respectively. No significant mean between-group difference was observed in 6MWT distance at 4 weeks. There were significant increases in SF and TSAT at 4 and 12 weeks (P < 0.02), and Hb at 12 weeks (P = 0.009). There were no between-group differences in other secondary outcomes and no adverse events attributable to iron therapy. Conclusion: This trial did not demonstrate beneficial effects of IV iron therapy on exercise capacity at 4 weeks. A larger study is needed to confirm if IV iron is beneficial in nondialysis patients with CKD who are iron-deficient

Entry Screening for Infectious Diseases in Humans

In response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemic of 2003 and the influenza pandemic of 2009, many countries instituted border measures as a means of stopping or slowing the spread of disease. The measures, usually consisting of a combination of border entry/exit screening, quarantine, isolation, and communications, were resource intensive, and modeling and observational studies indicate that border screening is not effective at detecting infectious persons. Moreover, border screening has high opportunity costs, financially and in terms of the use of scarce public health staff resources during a time of high need. We discuss the border-screening experiences with SARS and influenza and propose an approach to decision-making for future pandemics. We conclude that outbreak-associated communications for travelers at border entry points, together with effective communication with clinicians and more effective disease control measures in the community, may be a more effective approach to the international control of communicable diseases

A Randomized Trial of Intravenous Iron Supplementation and Exercise on Exercise Capacity in Iron-Deficient Nonanemic Patients With CKD.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are often iron deficient, even when not anemic. This trial evaluated whether iron supplementation enhances exercise capacity of nonanemic patients with CKD who have iron-deficiency. METHODS: Prospective, multicenter double-blind randomized controlled trial of nondialysis patients with CKD and iron-deficiency but without anemia (Hemoglobin [Hb] >110 g/l). Patients were assigned 1:1 to intravenous (IV) iron therapy, or placebo. An 8-week exercise program commenced at week 4. The primary outcome was the mean between-group difference in 6-minute walk test (6MWT) at 4 weeks. Secondary outcomes included 6MWT at 12 weeks, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum ferritin (SF), Hb, renal function, muscle strength, functional capacity, quality of life, and adverse events at baseline, 4 weeks, and at 12 weeks. Mean between-group differences were analyzed using analysis of covariance models. RESULTS: Among 75 randomized patients, mean (SD) age for iron therapy (n = 37) versus placebo (n = 38) was 54 (16) versus 61 (12) years; estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (34 [12] vs. 35 [11] ml/min per 1.73 m2], TSAT (23 [12] vs. 21 [6])%; SF (57 [64] vs. 62 [33]) μg/l; Hb (122.4 [9.2] vs. 127 [13.2] g/l); 6MWT (384 [95] vs. 469 [142] meters) at baseline, respectively. No significant mean between-group difference was observed in 6MWT distance at 4 weeks. There were significant increases in SF and TSAT at 4 and 12 weeks (P < 0.02), and Hb at 12 weeks (P = 0.009). There were no between-group differences in other secondary outcomes and no adverse events attributable to iron therapy. CONCLUSION: This trial did not demonstrate beneficial effects of IV iron therapy on exercise capacity at 4 weeks. A larger study is needed to confirm if IV iron is beneficial in nondialysis patients with CKD who are iron-deficient